Temporal correlation between opiate seizures in East/Southeast Asia and B.C. heroin deaths: a transoceanic model of heroin death risk.

BACKGROUND Because heroin supply changes cannot be measured directly, their impact on populations is poorly understood. British Columbia has experienced an injection drug use epidemic since the 1980s that resulted in 2,590 illicit drug deaths from 1990-1999. Since previous work indicates heroin seizures can correlate with supply and B.C. receives heroin only from Southeast Asia, this study examined B.C. heroin deaths against opiate seizures in East/Southeast Asia. METHODS Opiate seizures in East/Southeast Asia and data from two B.C. mortality datasets containing heroin deaths were examined. The Pearson correlation coefficient for seizures against each mortality dataset was determined. RESULTS Opiate seizures, all illicit drug deaths and all opiate deaths concurrently increased twice and decreased twice from 1989-1999, and all reached new peak values in 1993. Three B.C. sub-regions exhibited illicit drug deaths rate trends concurrent with the three principal datasets studied. The Pearson correlation coefficient for opiate-induced deaths against opiate seizures from 1980-1999 was R=0.915 (p<0.0001), and for illicit drug deaths against opiate seizures from 1987-1999 was R=0.896 (p<0.0001). CONCLUSIONS From 1980-1999, opiate seizures in East/Southeast Asia were very strongly correlated with B.C. opiate and illicit drug deaths. The number of B.C. heroin-related deaths may be strongly linked to heroin supply. Enforcement services are not effective in preventing harm caused by heroin in B.C.; therefore, Canada should examine other methods to prevent harm. The case for harm reduction is strengthened by the ineffectiveness of enforcement and the unlikelihood of imminent eradication of heroin production in Southeast Asia.